A while back, I wondered in which year the World population would be twice what it was when I was born, but couldn’t find a simple table on the web to answer this (I still can’t, so I’m sharing the following table in this blog). It’s a simple matter to look up the answer if we have both historical census figures (estimates of course) and future world population projections. The US Census Bureau provides a nice table with both, here. Their figures are for mid-year population, and the following data were copied on 2013-09-03.
So, for anyone born between 1950 and 1983, we can find the estimated ‘Birth World Population Doubling Year’ (BWPDY below). Mine just happens to be this year! We can make the time estimate a bit finer than just the year: I was born in January 1968, with an interpolated population of ca. 3,530,000,000. Interpolating again, twice that (7,060,000,000) was hit probably in January 2013, i.e., close to my own 45th Birthday!
Of course, these figures are all estimates, but the process of calculating this ‘Doubling Year,’ and even celebrating it (or mourning it) on a chosen ‘Doubling Day’ (one’s birthday in the Doubling Year?) is an informative and powerful reminder of the reality of exponential growth. Of course, as population growth slows, we have to wait longer and longer for a Doubling Year; for example, someone born four years after me must wait eight more years for their Doubling Year. And people born after 1982 are (currently) unlikely to see the World’s Population double.
Now... just try to imagine what it means for there to be twice as many humans on our planet than when we ourselves arrived!
Year Population Population x 2 BWPDY
==== ============= ============== ====
1950 2,557,628,654 5,115,257,308 1988
1951 2,594,919,657 5,189,839,314 1988
1952 2,636,732,631 5,273,465,262 1989
1953 2,681,994,386 5,363,988,772 1990
1954 2,730,149,884 5,460,299,768 1992
1955 2,782,001,154 5,564,002,308 1993
1956 2,835,182,293 5,670,364,586 1994
1957 2,891,211,793 5,782,423,586 1996
1958 2,947,979,287 5,895,958,574 1997
1959 3,000,544,325 6,001,088,650 1998
1960 3,042,828,380 6,085,656,760 1999
1961 3,083,799,968 6,167,599,936 2001
1962 3,139,919,051 6,279,838,102 2002
1963 3,209,631,895 6,419,263,790 2004
1964 3,280,981,862 6,561,963,724 2006
1965 3,350,186,115 6,700,372,230 2007
1966 3,420,416,498 6,840,832,996 2009
1967 3,490,051,163 6,980,102,326 2011
1968 3,562,007,503 7,124,015,006 2013
1969 3,636,825,800 7,273,651,600 2015
1970 3,712,338,708 7,424,677,416 2017
1971 3,789,941,225 7,579,882,450 2019
1972 3,866,158,404 7,732,316,808 2021
1973 3,941,664,971 7,883,329,942 2023
1974 4,016,159,586 8,032,319,172 2025
1975 4,088,619,689 8,177,239,378 2027
1976 4,159,715,844 8,319,431,688 2030
1977 4,231,636,519 8,463,273,038 2032
1978 4,303,675,842 8,607,351,684 2034
1979 4,378,583,227 8,757,166,454 2037
1980 4,450,924,299 8,901,848,598 2040
1981 4,533,807,914 9,067,615,828 2043
1982 4,613,830,568 9,227,661,136 2046
1983 4,694,935,057 9,389,870,114 (may never double)
1984 4,773,643,742 9,547,287,484 "
1985 4,855,387,634 9,710,775,268 "
1986 4,939,332,441 9,878,664,882 "
1987 5,025,796,394 10,051,592,788 "
1988 5,113,007,284 10,226,014,568 "
1989 5,199,760,484 10,399,520,968 "
1990 5,287,166,778 10,574,333,556 "
1991 5,370,142,696 10,740,285,392 "
1992 5,455,057,523 10,910,115,046 "
1993 5,537,583,721 11,075,167,442 "
1994 5,618,516,091 11,237,032,182 "
1995 5,699,516,291 11,399,032,582 "
1996 5,779,912,412 11,559,824,824 "
1997 5,858,582,659 11,717,165,318 "
1998 5,936,039,484 11,872,078,968 "
1999 6,013,121,531 12,026,243,062 "
2000 6,089,810,661 12,179,621,322 "
2001 6,166,582,980 12,333,165,960 "
2002 6,243,351,444 12,486,702,888 "
2003 6,319,822,330 12,639,644,660 "
2004 6,396,726,866 12,793,453,732 "
2005 6,473,525,274 12,947,050,548 "
2006 6,551,256,997 13,102,513,994 "
2007 6,629,668,134 13,259,336,268 "
2008 6,708,196,774 13,416,393,548 "
2009 6,786,381,274 13,572,762,548 "
2010 6,863,770,931 13,727,541,862 "
2011 6,940,712,355 13,881,424,710 "
2012 7,017,543,964 14,035,087,928 "
2013 7,095,217,980 14,190,435,960 "
2014 7,172,800,105 14,345,600,210 "
2015 7,250,104,524 14,500,209,048 "
2016 7,327,047,197 14,654,094,394 "
2017 7,403,533,981 14,807,067,962 "
2018 7,479,340,547 14,958,681,094 "
2019 7,554,324,522 15,108,649,044 "
2020 7,628,361,509 15,256,723,018 "
2021 7,701,503,831 15,403,007,662 "
2022 7,773,787,217 15,547,574,434 "
2023 7,845,094,405 15,690,188,810 "
2024 7,915,343,988 15,830,687,976 "
2025 7,984,471,678 15,968,943,356 "
2026 8,052,555,718 16,105,111,436 "
2027 8,119,653,594 16,239,307,188 "
2028 8,185,704,067 16,371,408,134 "
2029 8,250,680,127 16,501,360,254 "
2030 8,314,556,118 16,629,112,236 "
2031 8,377,397,726 16,754,795,452 "
2032 8,439,275,616 16,878,551,232 "
2033 8,500,179,665 17,000,359,330 "
2034 8,560,091,213 17,120,182,426 "
2035 8,618,975,745 17,237,951,490 "
2036 8,676,879,132 17,353,758,264 "
2037 8,733,854,464 17,467,708,928 "
2038 8,789,875,606 17,579,751,212 "
2039 8,844,910,290 17,689,820,580 "
2040 8,898,921,851 17,797,843,702 "
2041 8,951,939,549 17,903,879,098 "
2042 9,003,999,017 18,007,998,034 "
2043 9,055,061,670 18,110,123,340 "
2044 9,105,083,460 18,210,166,920 "
2045 9,154,029,673 18,308,059,346 "
2046 9,201,933,427 18,403,866,854 "
2047 9,248,825,693 18,497,651,386 "
2048 9,294,674,737 18,589,349,474 "
2049 9,339,454,816 18,678,909,632 "
2050 9,383,147,855 18,766,295,710 "